21 May Some Freed Gitmo Detainees Return to Ill Ways (Then Again So Do Many Criminals)
Details here. Assuming that we’re talking foot soldiers, this seems a pretty thin argument for keeping the rest under wraps, even through a cost-benefit/national interests optic. The equation: How much does keeping Gitmo up and running hurt US interests v. how much damage can released detainees cause if they return to the battlefield. I’m betting that for all but the very few high-level detainees, the former presents a much more serious (if diffuse) continuing hit. The proportion of Gitmo recidivists (assuming that’s the right description) is much more favorable than in the US criminal context, as the article notes:
Terrorism experts said a 14 percent recidivism rate was far lower than the rate for prisoners in the United States, which, they said, can run as high as 68 percent three years after release. They also said that while Americans might have a lower level of tolerance for recidivism among Guantánamo detainees, there was no evidence that any of those released had engaged in elaborate operations like the Sept. 11 attacks.
Still, domestic political incentives cut in favor of playing it safe. Obama’s worst nightmare: a terror Willie Horton. This also explains in part why Congress is balking on the Guantanamo shutdown, coupled with a bizarre NIMBY aversion to hosting any detainees on US soil.
[…] belief that it went unreleased for political reasons. Opinio Juris’s Peter Spiro notes that the recidivism rate is actually much lower than that of criminals and, furthermore, needs to be weighed against the high costs of keeping Guantanamo Bay […]
Response…i agree that GTMO has become a hateful symbol, like the Bastille, and should be shut down for propaganda reasons. but GTMO had the following sterling virtues:
(1) we knew where it was
(2) we knew who the correctional staff was, and they were all American military
(3) it was under American Court jurisdiction–the Supreme Court rejected the Bush Administration’s ridiculous argument that it was Cuban.
This makes GTMO far superior to the secret US prisons overseas, to Bagram, and to many “extraordinary renditions” and repatriations.
We can hope the same will be true of Stateside federal prisons.