In the case of Moldova, the question will be whether the protests continue and, if so, their size. While Moldova’s President Voronin is term-limited out of office, based on the recent parliamentary elections, the ruling Communist Party (headed by Voronin) will stay in power. The question is whether the protests will up-end the the political status quo. I’ll write a longer analysis on the situation Moldova in the near future.

As for Georgia, Stratfor has published this alert of a possible attempt to oust President Saakashvili. Their report begins:

Georgian opposition movements have planned mass protests for April 9, mostly in Tbilisi but also around the country. These protests could spell trouble for President Mikhail Saakashvili. The Western-leaning president has faced protests before, but this time the opposition is more consolidated than in the past. Furthermore, some members of the government are expected to join in the protests, and Russia has stepped up its efforts to oust Saakashvili.

 Stay tuned.

Related Posts

• February 23, 2009 -- Imagining Sovereignty, Managing Secession (and Fourth Generation Warfare)
• November 16, 2008 -- And, Lest We Forget Moldova…
• August 24, 2008 -- Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia
• August 22, 2008 -- Interesting Quote on Russian Invasion of Georgia
• August 19, 2008 -- SecState Rice Announces New NATO-Georgia Commission and Discusses U.S.-Russia Relations
• August 15, 2008 -- Statement from SecState Rice on Georgian Cease-Fire Agreement and Next Steps
• August 14, 2008 -- Parsing the Georgian Cease-Fire Agreement
• August 13, 2008 -- The Security Council and the Use of Force Post-Georgia War? Michael Glennon and ‘Desuetude’
• August 12, 2008 -- South Ossetia and “the Will of the People”
• August 12, 2008 -- Georgia Taking Russia to Court? And Vice Versa?
• August 11, 2008 -- The Investigative Committee in Russia and Alleged Georgian Crimes?
• August 11, 2008 -- Frozen Conflicts Unfreezing
• August 9, 2008 -- The War in Georgia: Issues of Escalation and Justification
• August 9, 2008 -- International Law, Power Politics, and Russian Intervention in Georgia
• August 8, 2008 -- Frozen Conflict Becomes Hot War: Russia Invades Georgia
• May 1, 2008 -- Fine Hiking (Never Mind the Troop Movements)
• February 17, 2008 -- Europe’s Newest State (?)
• December 9, 2007 --
• June 13, 2007 -- Vive la Différence?: The EU, the US, Russia, and Competing Conceptions of International Law
• September 17, 2006 -- Secession by Referendum?
• August 4, 2006 -- Tricky, Tricky, Transnistria
• August 2, 2006 -- Assessing the Legal Issues of the Moldovan Separatist Conflict
• July 29, 2006 -- President Bush Notes Transnistrian Conflict
• July 27, 2006 -- Lawyers, Guns, and Money: International Law and the Secessionist Conflict in Moldova