New Year; New EU

The stroke of midnight not only heralded the New Year, but also the entrance of Romania and Bulgaria into the EU. The BBC story is here. The EU has now grown to 27 countries with a population of half a billion people. See a time-lapse map of EU expansion here.

As the borders of “Europe” move eastward, the question will be what will happen to the borderlands, such as Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Can the EU absorb them as well? Much has been made of the fact that Turkey is Islamic. While that gives pause to some in Europe, also at issue is that Turkey would become the second most populous country in the EU and the border regime could lead to significant population movements. Or, there could be tiered movement rights, exacerbating the sense that the EU consists of an inner circle (the “Old Europe”) and lesser dominions (the “New Europe”).

For its part, Ukraine could become a new breadbasket for Europe, but how will that sit with French, Spanish, and German farmers?

In part the issue is not only the EU, but (in the cases of Moldova and Ukraine), Russian concerns over the expansion of the EU into its sphere of influence.

Regardless, the arrival of Romania and Bulgaria is something to be embraced. It is incredible that 15 years, almost to the day, after the end of the USSR, two more former members of the Warsaw Pact have joined this prosperous, democratic, club. But with the celebration, there remains the question of the line at the door. Will these people have to stay outside the party, forever peering in?

Religious identification, ethnic sensibilities, economics, human rights records, great power prerogatives, and, yes, geography, all have a part to play in determining the ultimate size, shape, and character of the EU and our political conception of “Europe.” For those interested in a quick tour of the political geographic questions in particular, I highly recommend geographer Harm de Blij’s book Why Geography Matters, which has a couple of fascinating chapters on the EU and Russia.