Kosovo’s Status: The Intra-EU Debate, the Role of “Law Talk,” and Next Steps

The past few days has seen an intense internal EU debate over the stance the EU should take concerning the status of Kosovo. It is interesting to see how talk about international law was deployed as a tool of statecraft. As discussed in my last post, Russia has had a turn toward “legalization” as it became clear that the political process was not going their way. Here I’ll look at the EU internal debate.

Chinese news agency Xinhua reports (emphasis added):

Romanian Defense Minister Teodor Melescanu said [in Belgrade] on Tuesday that his country’s parliament would not recognize the unilateral declaration of the independence of Kosovo.

“A unilateral decision could have a very negative effect on the entire region and is not in keeping with international law,” Melescanu told a joint press conference with his Serbian counterpart Dragan Sutanovac.

Romania has an interest in supporting Serbia: it has had good diplomatic relations with Serbia and, on top of that, Romania would not want to inadvertently support any claim for secession by the ethnic Hungarian population in Romanian Transylvania. For them, then, reference to international legal norms disfavoring secession has been part of their diplomatic stance on Kosovo.

Romania was not the only EU country with concerns. The Xinhua report continues:

Commenting different views among the EU members on the future status of Kosovo, Melescanu said that Romania would try to have its stand prevail.

The Daily Telegraph of London revealed on Tuesday that five EU countries shared Russia’s reservations towards supporting the independence of Kosovo, fearing that would give rise to secessionist hopes of their minorities.

Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain came under intense pressure to put aside their opposition in favor of a common EU position on Kosovo, the newspaper said, adding that Cyprus was the only one that has persisted in its stand.

With the possible exception of Slovakia (I don’t know what the domestic political situation is there in terms of secessionist concerns), each of these countries is grappling with some type of secessionist issue in their own domestic politics. So it is in each of their national interests to hold off on Kosovar independence, regardless as to whether or not international law would allow “external” self-determination in that case. And, as the political process vis a vis Serbia and Russia is at a deadlock, “law talk” becomes all the more attractive as a diplomatic tool. (However, I should note, I believe that an explicit reference to international legal norms earlier on would have had a positive effect in separating those who arguably have a good legal claim for sovereignty from those who do not.)

However, according to the Daily Telegraph, after internal diplomatic wrangling, the EU (but for Cyprus) is now essentially on the same page. I am curious as to what persuaded these countries. Perhaps it was simply an issue of consensus and the recognized importance of having a common EU stance on this. I doubt that a legal argument would overcome their domestic political imperative and sway these states (although I do think there is a real legal argument for Kosovar independence).

In any case, now the question is what will Kosovar leaders, the EU, and the US do going forward? From the Daily Telegraph:

“We will move to unity today,” said Luis Amado, the Portuguese foreign minister, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency.

In fact Cyprus, a divided island in search of its own diplomatic settlement for more than 30 years, remains opposed to independence for Kosovo. Erato Kozakou Markoullis, the Cypriot foreign minister, warned against the EU “breaking international law”.

Nonetheless, Kosovar Albanian leaders in Pristina, the province’s capital, are sure to interpret the Brussels meeting as a signal of strong EU backing. They have promised to co-ordinate any declaration of independence with the EU and America.

“From today, Kosovo is starting intense consultations with its international partners with the aim of co-ordinating steps for declaring independence,” Skender Hyseni of the Kosovo Albanian negotiating team, said.

One thing is clear, the stakes are high. Again, from the Daily Telegraph:

As EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels headed for “unity” in backing Kosovo’s independence, Russia gave warning that such a move would spark “a chain reaction” of instability across the Balkans and beyond.

“Those making such plans must think very carefully about the consequences,” said Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister.

David Miliband, the [UK] Foreign Secretary, said that the diplomatic war of words could eventually lead to real fighting. Asked if Nato’s 16,000 troops in Kosovo would need reinforcements if the situation deteriorated, he replied: “The short answer is yes.”