Is Doha Dying a Slow Death?
by Duncan Hollis

The push to finalize the Doha Round of Negotiations for the World Trade Organization has hit another roadblock. Following on earlier reports that negotiators would miss an end-of-April deadline to produce texts setting forth an agreed framework for agricultural and industrial tariff reductions, this week witnessed the cancellation of Ministerial-level meetings. In its place, U.S. and E.U. negotiators have opted to play the blame-game as to who’s at fault for missing the deadline.
For its part, the WTO has adopted the age-old solution of negotiating hosts – give the negotiators more time to negotiate. According to the WTO’s Director General Pascal Lamy, instead of scheduling more negotiations, the WTO will host “continuous” negotiations from now until mid-June. This will give negotiators time not only to try and reach agreement on the agricultural and industrial tariff texts, but also to allow them to avoid another missed deadline in July, when agreed framework texts on additional topics (e.g., liberalization of trade in services) are due. Indeed, July may prove the decisive point for whether Doha reaches a successful conclusion. Why? See below the fold to find out.
Well, although the WTO doesn’t say so, it appears all the parties recognize that for any deal to happen, it needs to be in place well before President Bush’s “fast track” trade authority expires in mid-2007. The prevailing wisdom is that this summer is the real deadline for a general agreement, since negotiators will need additional time to produce individual commitments that can be put through the requisite domestic processes necessary for states to consent to be bound to the new agreement. And, here in the United States, those domestic processes get a whole lot more complicated if the President lacks the up-or-down Congressional vote available under his “fast track” trade promotion authority. Indeed, some states might go so far as to avoid making concessions to the United States if they believe that, in lieu of an up-or-down vote, Congress can modify or undo these concessions as a condition for its approval of any deal. So, keep an eye on the WTO in July – that’s the point at which we’ll see if Doha revives itself (as many negotiations do at the last minute), or continues to die a slow death.
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April 24th, 2006 - 4:30 PM EDT | Trackback Link |
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