Crisis Watch — April Report

The International Crisis Group has released its April report concerning whether 70 conflict situations have improved, worsened, or stayed the same over the previous month. In March, ten situations worsened:

Belarus: Incumbent Aleksandr Lukashenko declared winner of 19 March presidential election with 82.6% of vote. OSCE observers said poll not free and fair. Opposition came under pressure in run-up to election with series of arrests, beatings and clampdown on independent press. Protests held against election violations in Minsk, culminating in large rally 25 March, violently broken up by police. 1,000 reportedly arrested after week of protests, including senior figure Alexander Kozulin. EU and U.S. declared would target sanctions at those responsible for electoral violations and post-election crackdown. UN Special Rapporteur Adrian Severin led UN call for immediate investigation into deteriorating rights situation. Russia congratulated Lukaschenko.

Central African Republic: Refugees fleeing unrest in north claimed attacked by government troops: 7,000 have fled to Chad since January, with 50,000 more internally displaced. Government confirmed existence of rebellion in northwest for first time 13 March; accused former President Patasse and MLDC party of fuelling unrest.

Chad: Fighting between government forces and rebels intensified, with risk of further deterioration. Military launched operation against SCUD base 20 March: army said base destroyed while rebels claimed repelled attack. Army commander General Itno killed 31 March in clash with rebels and Sudanese militia. SCUD announced would try to stop President Deby from holding 3 May presidential elections, while opposition called for boycott of poll. Earlier, government blamed rebels for reported assassination attempt on Deby. AU endorsed plan to deploy military observers to Chad/Sudan border as provided under February peace agreement.

Ecuador: Indigenous demonstrations demanding end to free-trade talks with U.S. caused widespread turmoil. State of emergency declared in 5 central provinces. Indigenous leaders called temporary halt to protests 24 March, but reconsidered demonstrations at assembly at end of month. Interior Minister Castillo resigned over government’s handling of crisis.

Gambia: Government said it thwarted coup plot by army. 28 arrested, including 15 officers, but supposed leader, former defence chief Ndure Cham, still at large. Intelligence and defence heads replaced and Independent newspaper editors arrested in “coup” aftermath.

Guinea-Bissau/Senegal: Fierce fighting between G-B army and Senegalese Casamance rebels near border killed at least 12 and displaced 5,000. Rebel group’s hardline wing rejects 2004 peace deal with Senegal. Rebels blamed for landmine that killed 12 in minibus outside G-B town of Sao Domingos 16 March.

Pakistan: Fierce fighting in North Waziristan risked spreading to neighbouring tribal regions. Government claimed nearly 200 local Taliban militants and 5 soldiers killed. Further 25 killed in operation outside Miranshah near Afghan border. Unrest in Balochistan continued with series of mine blasts and attacks on infrastructure: 26 killed in Dera Bugti 10 March. In North West Frontier Province’s Khyber Agency, clash between supporters of rival clerics killed 26.

Somalia: Heavy fighting between Islamic Courts’ militia and members of U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism killed up to 140 in Mogadishu. Talks to resolve conflict collapsed and escalation feared. UN Security Council welcomed first in-country session of full transitional parliament in Baidoa but warned violence could undermine political progress; also indicated readiness to consider arms embargo exemption for possible IGAD/AU peace-support mission if approved by Somali parliament. U.S. navy clashed with seagoing militias after UNSC encouraged operations against piracy off Somali coast.

Turkey: Security rapidly deteriorated in southeastern cities of Diyarbakir and Batman. Protests at 28 March funeral of 4 PKK militants, among 14 killed in military operation in Mus province, sparked 4 days of rioting in which 7 reported dead. Suspected PKK attacks killed at least 10 including 3 in suicide bombing outside governor’s office in Van 9 March. 1 killed in Istanbul explosion 31 March claimed by Kurdistan Freedom Falcons. In on-going inquiry into alleged army involvement in November Semdinli bombing, regional prosecutor Ferhat Sarikaya called for investigation into army second-in-command General Yasar Buyukanit. Army condemned Sarikaya and rejected investigation of any officers.

Uzbekistan: Government intensified crackdown on opposition activists and international organisations, sentencing dissidents to long prison terms and expelling UNHCR and U.S. NGO Freedom House. Opposition Sunshine Coalition leaders Nigora Khidoyatova and Sanjar Umarov given 10- and 11-year sentences for economic crimes which supporters say politically motivated; rights activist Mutabar Tojiboeva received 8-year sentence. Government published new restrictions on foreign journalists’ activities, as President Islam Karimov said nation under attack from West in “information war”.

And four improved:

Basque Country (Spain): ETA announced “permanent” ceasefire 22 March, raising hopes for solution to longstanding conflict. Spanish PM Zapatero indicated government would seek parliamentary support for peace talks “before summer” if ceasefire sincere and comprehensive. Basque nationalist party Batasuna organised strike 9 March after 2 ETA members died in custody; 2 bombs exploded same day.

Bosnia & Herzegovina: Potentially momentous breakthrough as vital EU/U.S.-sponsored constitutional reforms agreed by 7 main political parties. Reforms would create single rotating presidency, larger and more efficient parliament, and curtail powers of Council of Ministers. Agreement now awaiting parliamentary approval. First-round negotiations with EU on Stabilisation and Association Agreement began 17 March. High Rep. Schwarz-Schilling announced gradual repeal of laws banning certain officials from public office, except those dismissed for aiding ICTY indictees. Republika Srpska (RS) court, in second ever war crimes conviction in RS, sentenced Bosnian Serb to 20 years.

Côte d’Ivoire: Prospects of long-delayed peace process improved: Forces Nouvelles leader Guillaume Soro returned to Abidjan 14 March for first full session of transitional government headed by PM Charles Konan Banny. Military dialogue began with ex-rebels 1 April on disarmament and forming new national army. UN troops who fled due to January’s violent demonstrations prepared to redeploy in Guiglo. Head of independent election commission formally began work after political parties agreed on distribution of executive posts in commission.

Haiti: Situation showed signs of improvement, with decline in kidnappings and attacks on UN mission since February elections. Government announced delayed second round of parliamentary polls to be held 21 April. Inauguration of president-elect René Préval expected 14 May. Préval met key Latin America leaders and U.S. president; called on UN Security Council for more aid.

The entire report is available here.