Crisis Watch — March Report

Crisis Watch has issued its March report, which summarizes developments in 70 situations of actual or potential conflict and assesses whether the situations have worsened, improved, or remained the same during the previous month. According to the report, 8 situations worsened and 2 improved.

Worsened

Nigeria: Security deteriorated with upsurge in religious and political violence. Protests by Muslims against Danish cartoons satirising Prophet Mohammed turned violent, killing 50, mostly Christians, as churches and Christian businesses targeted in several northern cities. In response, riots broke out against Muslims in Christian south; over 100 reported dead. Security situation remained volatile in Delta region, after new series of politically motivated attacks by Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta on oil infrastructure and kidnapping of 9 foreign workers.

India (non-Kashmir): Maoist violence escalated in Chhattisgarh state while northeastern unrest continued. Maoists killed 70, including 8 police in 9 February raid on state- run explosives factory, and as many as 55 members of anti-Maoist group in 28 February landmine blast. Protests against death of man in police custody in northeastern Tinsukia district turned violent killing 12. Representatives for United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) held productive talks with state officials 7 February ahead of proposed direct talks between government and ULFA leadership; government agreed to series of confidence-building measures. Attack on state gas workers 14 February killed 3; National Liberation Front of Tripura rebels suspected.

Pakistan: Sectarian violence erupted in North West Frontier Province: at least 35 killed in suicide bombing on Shiite Ashura procession and subsequent unrest. Government officials blamed external elements rather than local sectarian tensions, while local Shiite leaders blamed government for failing to curb Sunni militants. 5 days of increasingly violent protests held to denounce publication of cartoons of Prophet Mohammed in western media. Protests turned deadly in Lahore and Peshawar; 5 reported killed. Islamist coalition Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, briefly held under house arrest to prevent him leading Islamabad rally 19 February. Unrest continued in South Waziristan as 3 soldiers killed by roadside bomb 5 February. Balochistan rebels intensified insurgency with 2 February rocket attack and 5 February bus bomb: at least 21 killed. Nationwide protest planned against 3 March visit of U.S. President Bush.

Kazakhstan: Opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaev assassinated along with driver and bodyguard, sending shock waves through political elite: second suspicious death of senior opposition figure since November. Senate General Secretary Erzhan Utembaev arrested and reportedly admitted ordering killing of Sarsenbaev out of “personal enmity”. 5 members of state security service charged with kidnapping and killing, prompting resignation of agency’s head. Opposition suggested Utembaev being used as scapegoat; called for resignation of Senate Speaker Nurtai Abykaev and questioning of president’s daughter, parliamentarian Dariga Nazarbaeva, and her husband Deputy FM Rakhat Aliyevis. Around 1,000 marched in Almaty in memory of Sarsenbaev. U.S. FBI assisting Kazakh government in investigation after request for assistance.

Taiwan Strait: Tension raised between Beijing and Taipei after President Chen Shui-bian announced National Unification Council and its guidelines would “cease to function” 27 February. Move brought condemnation from Beijing who previously called Chen “troublemaker and saboteur.”

Philippines: State of emergency declared by President Arroyo 24 February amidst reports that military thwarted coup attempt and after minor blast at presidential palace. Top military officers “retired” in end to minor rebellion by marines, Daily Tribune newspaper’s offices raided while 16 members of congress and security forces charged with coup plot. Commemorations to mark 20th anniversary of revolution that ousted President Marcos cancelled but small rallies held, leading to minor standoffs with security forces. Exploratory talks began 6 February between Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and government; both sides hopeful for peace agreement on Moro homeland and future of 12,000-strong MILF force by September 2006. Clashes continued between military and suspected Abu Sayyaf members on Basilan and with Communist National People’s Army south of capital.

North Caucasus (non-Chechnya): Violence spread north from turbulent border republics with clash between security forces and suspected militants in Stavrapol krai, leaving 7 police, 12 gunmen dead. Head of Daghestan Republic Magomedali Magomedov resigned stoking fears of power struggle: Kremlin installed Mukhu Aliyev as successor. In further clashes, at least 5 reported killed in Daghestan and 2 in Ingushetia. 3 blasts, treated as terrorist attacks, at gaming halls in North Ossetian town of Vladikavkaz killed 2.

Iraq: Fears grew of descent into full-scale civil war as sectarian violence escalated and political negotiations over composition of new government increasingly characterised by pursuit of narrowly-defined ethnic and sectarian interests. Bombing of Shiite al-Askariya shrine in Samara 22 February set off worst sectarian violence of U.S. occupation. Massive demonstrations, reprisal attacks and suicide bombings followed; estimates put death toll at 800. Surge in violence prompted talks between Sunni and Shiite leaders who promised to work together. Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) sought coalition partners to form new majority government but agreement with Kurdish, Sunni Arab and secular parties remained elusive. Interim PM Jaafari selected as UIA candidate for prime minister; requires two-thirds parliamentary approval for cabinet. U.S. intensified effort to bring Sunni Arabs into political process; U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad issued thinly-veiled threat to restrict U.S. aid should new government include politicians with “sectarian agenda.”

Improved

Sri Lanka: In significant step forward, government and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, meeting in Geneva, released joint statement committing to curb violence and hold further talks in April. Violence decreased considerably in run-up to 22-23 February Norwegian-backed talks. Government freed 4 rebels as good-will gesture.

Cambodia: Opposition leader Sam Rainsy returned from self-imposed exile 10 February after receiving royal pardon for allegations against PM Hun Sen and National Assembly leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh; pardon followed Rainsy apology. International donor meeting scheduled to start 3 March.

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