27 Dec More Predictions of Israeli Airstrike on Iran
27.12.05
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I have written on the madness of Mahmoud Ahmadinejah and the threat Iran poses to Israel. See here, here, and here. Other bloggers are now joining the fray.
David Bernstein at Volokh Conspiracy has just returned from Israel and has this prediction: “I predict that Israel will strike Iran within the next few months, with the goal of disrupting or terminating Iran’s nuclear program.” He notes that “[g]iven that the anti-Iranian consensus is so solid even on the Left, I would be very surprised if the Israeli government fails to follow through on its promise to prevent Iran from acquiring atomic weapons–assuming, of course, that Iran isn’t stopped by other international forces.”
I will follow David Bernstein’s prediction with two of my own: As long as Iran continues its current course and does not take outright belligerent action against Israel: (1) The United Nations Security Council will not authorize the use of force against Iran; and (2) the United States will not unilaterally attack Iran.
I would be curious what our readers think. Scroll down and vote.
An attack by the Israeli’s, or by US forces, will likely result in the death of hundreds of thousands if not millions of Iranians. And while I recognize the significance of Iran’s nuclear progress coupled with its president’s horrific statements, one cannot view Iranian politics or foreign policy from a superficial perspective. The president, Ahmadinejad, has no military authority nor any real political power. One needs only to view former president Khatami’s failure to actualize reform policies as the barometer of Iranian presidential weakness. Ironically, the Iranian president is more a weapon of mass destruction to his own people, than to foreign nations. The question is, whether the powers underlying the negotiations and nuclear planning are guided by “ideological imperative and nationalistic determination” such that the program can never be negotiated away. To begin with, it is clear that Iran is treated and negotiated with differently than other states, authoritarian or not. The significantly different treatment between the “haves” and “have-nots” is essential in characterizing Iran’s fear. Generally, a number of variables have been looked at to explain why a country would go nuclear. Two of the most prominent which have emerged in the Iran “nuclar discussion” are prestige and… Read more »