08 Jul The Politics of the ICJ’s Kosovo Opinion: Kosovo Can’t Win, But It Could Lose
Morton Abramowitz and James Hooper have a very interesting analysis in the National Interest of the likely effect of the soon-to-be released ICJ advisory opinion in Kosovo. The analysis is not legal, but political. And the bottom line, Kosovo is far from out of the woods, even if the judgment is favorable to Kosovo statehood:
No one knows what the court will do, but:
—If the opinion favors Kosovo, that will bring the new state more recognitions to the significant but still underwhelming sixty-nine they have received to date. But they will not win recognition from Serbia nor admission to the UN because of a Russian veto. Nor will Serbia give up its demand for the northern part of Kosovo inhabited mostly by Serbs. Kosovo will have an improved limbo status.
—If the opinion is against Kosovo, the fledgling state will keep its independence but lose some recognitions and the hope of getting into the UN or EU. It will be left in a more dangerous limbo and some serious popular violence against Serbs in Kosovo is quite possible.
—If, as many expect, the court, understandingly fearful of the consequences of its decision, comes down on neither side, many states that have sat on the sidelines of the recognition debate will be more open to recognition, which Serbia well understands. Facing declining international leverage from their resolute opposition, Belgrade will likely seek to open negotiations with Pristina over their future relations. Kosovo, like it or not, will have to engage because its Western patrons will insist. This scenario has both risk and promise and serious ramifications not only for Kosovo and Serbia but also for neighboring Macedonia and Bosnia.
At least this time they’ve moved the fighting to the judicial arena. Less lives likely to be lost that way.
Wow, nice summary, thanks Mr. Ku.
Looks interesting all the way. While most egotistical politicians want their states big, etc.. I think the whole peak Oil scenario, which requires geographical and financial relocalisation is really the best option to navigate the peak oil geopolitical landscape. This coercive multiculturalism is creating more friction, than allowing groups to secede/relocalise, and resolve their other problems cohesively. Thats my view..
Kosovo couldn’t care less about this ICJ Advisory Opinion, if it would only affect recognition from the U.N., Serbia or Russia. As a matter of fact, both Serbia and Kosovo have already stated officially that they don’t care about this decision.
It’s the EU, which matters! Not UNMIK but EULEX has now run the business on the ground for the last two years and is in the process of getting serious. It’s the EU that has the carrot of EU membership for both Serbia and Kosovo. It’s the EU that will ultimately decide what will happen to Kosovo, given that it’s in their backyard. It’s the EU that will lead Mitrovica negotiations, should they come into existence.
On a short note: everyone is Kosovo would glady trade a negative ICJ Decision for the recognition of statehood by the remaining five E.U. Member States.