13 Feb Guess Which Way the ICJ Will Rule on Bosnia Genocide Case?
Is there really much suspense about the likely outcome of the ICJ’s decision in the genocide application brought by Bosnia against Serbia? Not much. Indeed, there are signs that the governments in question already know the result and (the losing ones at least) are preparing their arguments against the ICJ’s legitimacy and authority. The Republika Srpska, the Bosnian Serb Republic, has already rejected the ICJ’s judgment.
This is yet another manifestation of international factor’s (sp) bad policy towards Serbs in general. The verdict, whatever it is, will not be accepted by RS and will not be implemented, even if this means a new international dispute [Republika Srpska leader] Milorad Dodik said.
Expect similar noises out of Serbia when the time comes. Stay tuned!
Julian, I frankly doubt that the governments involved already know the result, and that goes doubly so for Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb PM. Serbia, for its part, has not done anything to dispute the legitimacy of the ICJ – the Serbian Agent before the Court was on TV for half an hour yesterday, and he not once attacked the legitimacy of the Court, or the integrity and authority of the Judges. Quite the contrary. The reason you have this kind of reaction from Bosnian Serbs is twofold: (1) They dispute the legitimacy of the filing of the Bosnian application to the Court, as that was done by pre-Dayton Bosnian authorities (i.e. Bosnian Muslims alone), and was not ratified by the post-Dayton presidency, where the Bosnian Serbs would have been able to veto it. Indeed, the Bosnian Serb authorities have done everything in their power to obstruct the proceedings, for instance by going to the Bosnian Constitutional Court and claiming that the application was improperly filed. (2) Of course, the substantive reason for doing so is that Republika Srpska wants to dispute beyond everything else that it is a ‘genocidal creation’, as that would undermine its position in the new… Read more »
If the ICJ passes the jurisdiction stage, then this judgement could very well be another landmark case, like the Nicaragua case of 1986. Something international lawyers can study in the decades to come. I hope they get to the substantive issues. They are very interesting: e.g., what role does the evidence of the ICTY play in the proceedings of the ICJ? what role do the legal findings of the ICTY play in the proceedings of the ICJ (e.g. the finding in Krstic that genocide was committed in Srebrenica)? Can the genocidal actions of the Bosnian Serb Army be attributed to a state? Can a state commit genocide and have a genocidal intent? Or is it better to personalize guilt, as the ICTY tries to do, and basically blame only Mladic and Karadzic? I tried to write something about these issues here.
But as Spijkers rightly says, that is only if the case progresses beyond the jurisdiction stage. And there are one or two serious question marks there.
I, for one, have written a lengthy blog post on those questions about a year ago. Rather than elaborate again in this comment, I take the liberty of referring to it: it is here.
Of course, I would much prefer if the Court takes jurisdiction and tackles the many issues identified by Spijkers, but that is not to say that there are no problems in doing so.
Which, of course, makes the wait all the more tantalising.