[Daniel Bodansky, University of Georgia School of Law and OJ guest blogger, sends this second dispatch on the state of the Climate Change talks leading up to the Copenhagen Conference. Professor Bodansky will also be blogging from Copenhagen here at Opinio Juris in December.]

This week, the chair of the negotiations and the executive secretary of the UN climate change secretariat both confirmed what had been obvious to most knowledgeable observers for some time: the Copenhagen Conference in December will not be able to adopt a new climate change treaty. Instead, they suggested, as a goal, adopting a series of COP (conference of the parties) decisions, which would be “politically” but not legally “binding” and would form the basis for a treaty to be negotiated post-Copenhagen.

Although a political outcome in Copenhagen should be easier to achieve than a legal agreement, it will still be difficult and will require significant compromises by all sides. The basic elements of the Copenhagen outcome could include:

• A long-term goal, expressed as a limit to global temperature increase (e.g., 2 degrees), greenhouse gas concentrations (e.g., 450 parts per million) and/or long-term emission reductions (e.g., emission reductions of 50% by 2050) .
• Mid-term emission reduction targets for developed countries, expressed either as an absolute number (e.g., reductions of 20% by 2020) or as a range (e.g., 16-23%).
• Policies and measures by major developing countries such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.
• Financial commitments/pledges by Western countries to assist mitigation and adaptation actions by developing countries.
• Decisions addressing adaptation, technology transfer, REDD (reductions in emissions from deforestation and degradation), mechanisms (possibly including new rules for the CDM and for land-use change), and capacity-building.

Given the current state of the negotiations (which remain bogged down), an outcome along these lines remains a very ambitious objective for Copenhagen, even if it is reflected “only” in COP decisions rather than in a new legal agreement.

How much does the legal status of the Copenhagen outcome matter?

[Daniel Bodansky, University of Georgia School of Law and OJ guest blogger, sends this dispatch on the state of the Climate Change talks leading up to the Copenhagen Conference.  Professor Bodansky will also be blogging from Copenhagen here at Opinio Juris in December.]

Barcelona, 4 November 2009

The UN climate change negotiations resumed on Monday in Barcelona, after only a three week hiatus since the last round in Bangkok. Between the official negotiations, the parallel political meetings of the major economies forum (MEF), the Commonwealth, and APEC, the numerous bilaterals (including the upcoming Obama visit to China), and the off-line dialogues convened by Denmark, the negotiating process will essentially be non-stop between now and when the Copenhagen Conference begins on December 7.

But progress remains elusive at best. The disconnect between the political urgency surrounding the climate change issue among political leaders and the insular world of the UNFCCC negotiations is growing ever more striking.

On the one hand, most of the key countries or groups – the EU, Japan, China, Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Australia – have either adopted or appear near to adopting domestic climate change policies. And although enactment of climate change legislation by the United States remains in doubt, a major bill has already passed the House of Representatives and the Senate is now beginning its consideration of similar legislation. So, from the perspective of national climate change policies, prospects have never been brighter. . . .